You Might Miss The Bullseye, But Dont Miss The Target

You Might Miss The Bullseye, But Dont Miss The Target

As a growth team, we are responsible for providing each and every client with a forecast & budget, anchored to the target performance metrics that make customer acquisition & retention scaleable and sustainable.

There are so many factors that go into this that make sure forecasts are not arbitrary YoY, MoM %'s, yet with the right foundation achieve the desired YoY & MoM growth.

To name a few:

• Historical analysis, current trajectory, desired future state of the business & performance channels that support it.

• On hand inventory, re-stocks & new product drops

• Marketing moments (launches, promos etc)

And a key thing with forecasts is: you might not hit the bullseye, ie: hitting every days revenue and performance goals, but do not miss on the broader weekly, monthly, new drop, promotional targets.

Thats where having yourself set up in a way that allows you to pull levers comes into play - that feeds into that future facing strategy and avoids the 'day trading' mentality to performance marketing that means missing the bullseye often leads to missing the target.

Your base levers:

• Spend

• Spend allocation to audience segment (cold, engaged, repeat)

• Omni-Channel Splits (eg: across meta, tiktok, google)

• Creative by funnel stage

• Email campaign strategy & structure

All anchoring up into target revenue, spend, spend allocation, nMER, MER, ACoS targets daily, for the period, monthly, quarterly & annually.

In the attached example, this was a planned out moment for one of our brands.

Projected sales for this moment: $1,297,119

We missed on day 3... oh shit!

But we were already up.

We missed on day 7!

But we over delivered on day 8.

Projected Total Sales: $1,297,119.00
Actual Total Sales: $1,379,216.90
Achieved against our nMER, MER, ACoS targets & within the planned budget.

The TLDR is:

• Not having a data backed approach to forecasting, budgeting & performance metrics is like finger in the air forecasting & planning - pointless.

• Having a day trading approach to performance marketing will make you miss the target when you don't hit the bullseye

• Control the set up of your levers so you can accurately and effectively pull them to attain the goal